Harding Newsletter: Why Freeland's struggles aren't what they seem

April 16, 2022

Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland has a 10.00 ERA through two starts this season. Funny thing about the eye test is there’s more than one way to take it.

Taking a step back, it’s obvious Freeland has been hurt most by three pitches.

Pitch 1: Fading in his first start on Opening Day after a shortened spring, he gave up a two-run single with two outs — and two strikes — to the Dodgers’ Gavin Lux. It was hit decently, but it was simply a grounder that could have hit his foot.

Pitch 2: On Thursday night, he overcame mostly soft hits while allowing three runs to the Cubs in the first, and buckled down to make it to the sixth with just a 3-2 deficit. But a curveball to Frank Schwindel hung high and outside, and was popped to right field for a homer. It was a pitch Freeland no doubt wished he could take back.

Pitch 3: Ian Happ’s run-scoring dribbler in the sixth, giving Chicago a 5-2 lead, would have been a double play if not for a shifted infield.

One of the Rockies’ best coaching moves last season was not overreacting to Freeland’s slow start, a stretch that saw him post a 9.58 ERA through his first five starts after returning from a left shoulder injury. He pitched to a 3.24 ERA through his final 18 starts and was a high-energy member of the Rockies’ rotation.

The difference between last year’s tough start and this one? Last year, Freeland fell victim to poor execution, which led to hard-hit balls. This year, the ground balls that would otherwise lead to effective starts are falling for base hits, at least so far.

“I can’t do anything about it — I got the ball on the ground,” Freeland said after Thursday night’s defeat. “Four of the five hits in the first inning were through the 6-hole (between shortstop and third). Some days it’s going to be right at guys. Some days it’s going to go through the holes. I did a good job of getting the ball on the ground. It’s just unfortunate it was able to find holes.”

Manager Bud Black said, “He might’ve tired in the sixth, but some ground balls went through, some seeing-eye hits for the first three runs. We didn’t help with a couple [defensive] miscues in the first.”

On the stat sheet, Freeland has been awful. Watching the actual game, though, it’s mainly just those three pitches. The sinker to Lux could have been executed better, the homer to Schwindel was a mistake, and the one to Happ was poor luck.

It’s fair to say he needs to locate some key pitches better, but there isn’t cause to panic so early into the season.

INSTANT RELIEF

The bullpen came up big once again on Friday night, as five pitchers combined to toss 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball to nail down a 6-5 victory over the Cubs, with Daniel Bard picking up his third save of the season.

Carlos Estévez walked three in the eighth but forced a double-play grounder before being rescued by a Tyler Kinley strikeout. Performances like Estévez’s can make it tough to protect leads, but there haven’t been many of those types of outings so far in 2022.

Before the season, Black said he had studied the greatest relief pitchers in history and found that generally, they averaged three or more strikeouts for every one walk. While he isn’t expecting his bullpen to be populated with future Hall of Famers, it’s a good aspiration to have. Well, through Friday the Rockies’ bullpen has an MLB-best 0.86 team ERA, with 28 strikeouts against 11 walks. It had been a four-to-one ratio heading into the day, at 24 strikeouts to six walks. 

As the season progresses, this figure will be one to watch, but not necessarily as an aggregate for the entire ‘pen. It’s inevitable that some relievers will struggle and won’t be used in tight games. The question is how many at a given time will maintain that trust. The walks-to-strikeouts figure will be a key in evaluating which pitchers should be used when it counts.